The Week In COVID-19 In Five Graphs — 3/15/20
The world looks at people in crypto and assume we’re risk takers. Maybe we are. But my view is, that we have open minds and we’re curious. I think we believe more in math, science, and algorithms. So we have a greater understanding of exponential growth. As a result, we see things that others don’t see because they’re not looking. Or if they are looking, they’re not looking at as wide of an expanse. So what do we see? What does anyone see who’s looking at the data?
Compared to the flu, coronavirus is more contagious; deadlier; harder to contain; takes up more critical medical resources; longer and asymptomatic infectious period; no effective vaccine / treatment; can infect entire populations in close quarters (hospitals, Diamond Princess). If containment fails, it will overwhelm global healthcare systems. — Ryan Selkis
I reside in NYC, and would leave for a “safer haven ”, but my three kids live nearby with my ex, and she doesn’t see what I see.
I was living in Los Angeles in 1992 when the Rodney King riots erupted. I witnessed how the rule of law, social order, can evaporate in an instant.
So here I am. Looking out as the tsunami is about to hit, like the crew of The Poseidon , while others continue partying like its 1999. Many still believe it’s a Democratic hoax:
Below are the five graphs that have most informed me:
1. Flattening The Curve
CDC
This is the most widely viewed graph on the pandemic, graphically showing that if cities, states, and countries, don’t contain the virus, healthcare systems will get overwhelmed. And the best way to contain is to wash our hands, practice social distancing, and/or quarantine ourselves. I’m doing all. I haven’t left my NYC apartment building in three days.
While it’s a straightforward strategy that has been widely adopted around the world, there are other points of view. In fact, at the moment, the U.K.’s plan is to simply let the virus run it’s course, under the belief that, per the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, the second wave/strain is far deadlier than the first. So let as many people get it as possible to foster “herd immunity”.
2. COVID-19: New York Will Be The Next Italy, But Doesn’t Have to Be
3/14/20, Michael Donnelly, Data Scientist
His premise is pretty simple: “NYC must implement more severe social distancing measures and potentially fully shut down no later than a week from now in order to avoid overwhelming its hospital system”.
Yet, the current plan is to have NYC schools open tomorrow. Many bars in NYC were still busy for St. Patricks Day last night. It seems self evident that the city will close down soon. The question is, will it close down soon enough?
3. TBI/Messari 2019-nCoV Tracking
Updated Regularly, Ryan Selkis
Ryan Selkis of Messari was the first person in my crypto Twitter to really raise the alarm about Coronavirus, and he continues to be incredibly thoughtful on the topic. This chart really helps put the pandemic in to context for me. Per Wikipedia, the Spanish Flu killed 17–100 million people, when the world had a population of 1.8–1.9 billion.
4. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) — Research and Statistics
Updated regularly, Our World Data
This site is a treasure trove of relevant data on COVID-19. I could easily have gotten all five charts from the site. Given the importance of testing to flattening the curve, this chart is a stark proof of the stunningly negligent response to date in the U.S..
5. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) — Research and Statistics
Updated regularly, Our World Data
This chart shows, while some countries like the U.S. continue to be on a tragic trajectory, similar to Italy, other countries (e.g. China, South Korea, Singapore) appear to have effectively addressed the pandemic. The lessons learned are testing, social distancing, and quarantining.
Stay safe!
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